Robin Hanson on how to be a better contrarian
Robin Hanson, quite the contrarian himself, offers contrarians some advice:
On average, contrarian views are less accurate than standard views. Honest contrarians should admit this, that neutral outsiders should assign most contrarian views a lower probability than standard views, though perhaps a high enough probability to warrant further investigation. [...]
He goes on to list a few common but inadequate contrarian defenses and offers critiques of each:
1. They Laughed At Galileo Too
2. Standard Experts Are Biased
3. We’ve More Detail Than Critics
4. Few Who Study Us Disagree
Overcoming Bias: Contrarian Excuses
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November 26th, 2009 at 5:34 am
“On average, contrarian views are less accurate than standard views.”
Interesting. I like the ambiguously looped nature of that line.
Meditate on that one long enough and it starts to undo rational thought.